2029: Transfer of social costs to the EU-D-S

The study „Outsourcing of Social Costs to the EU-D-S“ analyzes in detail how EU member states can relieve their social systems. It will appear in about 2 weeks.

1. Likely Scenario Without Trusted WEB for the Future

Forecast for 2029: General costs will rise by 15–25% due to:

• Destruction of fossil reserves: Due to the Iran and Ukraine wars, 30–40% of Europe’s oil and gas imports are no longer available. The EIA forecasts a rise in Brent crude oil prices to over 80 USD/barrel by the end of 2024 (EIA, 2024). Import costs will increase by €200–300 billion/year.
• Limited transport options: Due to low water levels on rivers (e.g., Rhine: –60% freight capacity in summer 2028, Tagesschau, 2023) and blocked trade routes, logistics costs will rise by 20–30%.
• Climate costs: The EU already spends €300–400 billion/year (2–3% of GDP) on climate protection measures. By 2029, these costs will rise to €500–600 billion/year as extreme weather events (heatwaves, floods) strain infrastructure (DIW Berlin, 2025).
• Demographic strain: Despite rising life expectancy (+2.5 years since 2020), there is no additional budget for pensions. The pension gap amounts to €300–500 billion/year (Euronews, 2026).
• Decline in tax revenue: The traditional industry (e.g., automotive) loses 10–15% revenue per year. Tax revenue will fall by €150–200 billion/year (Tagesschau, 2024).

Conclusion: Without Trusted WEB 4.0, the EU faces a cumulative cost explosion of €1,000–1,500 billion/year by 2029—amid declining revenue and growing social inequality.

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2. Development with Broad European Support for Trusted WEB 4.0

Following the first successful Primus companies in the EU-D-S (2027–2028), it is clear: Trusted WEB 4.0 enables sustainable value creation and digital participation. If a spirit of optimism spreads among citizens and businesses, states can outsource participation issues to the EU-D-S—while simultaneously relieving their budgets.

Transferring pre-digital principles into digitization means:

• Individual and flexible design: Digitization and AI enable personalized solutions—without the rigid structures of analog systems.
• Participation payments instead of social costs: The state can replace 20–30% of social costs (approx. €500–700 billion/year) through digital participation in the EU-D-S. This relieves budgets and strengthens personal responsibility.
• Win-win for high achievers: Companies pay less tax but receive high-quality data and more efficient processes through getmySense.

A purely AI-driven economy that views people solely as data providers and consumers benefits most people little. Trusted WEB 4.0 focuses on genuine participation and fair value creation.

Performance principle as a foundation:

• getmySense for students: Even in school, young people can test in various categories whether they can achieve performance levels 1–10—without negative evaluations. The risk: An AI classifies them into a different level.
• Flexible participation: Everyone can decide for themselves how many hours per month they want to contribute or create evaluations. Billing is done automatically via micropayments, depending on the value of the contribution.
• No age limits: Everyone can participate in any age-appropriate category. Behind the WAN-anonymous keys, a year of birth can be stored for age controls regarding content harmful to minors.
• AI-supported quality control: Example: A non-medical professional explains simple medical contexts in performance level 1 for other non-medical professionals. The AI checks whether this aligns with performance level 10 (medical expertise) and, if necessary, requests adjustments.

New financing models:

• Unit price-based contract awarding: Instead of complicated funding rules, the state awards contracts at fixed unit prices for defined services. No dependence on changing government majorities.
• Involvement of educational institutions: Schools and universities can be integrated into the data economy.
• „Digital Year“: A 3–24-month interdisciplinary scholarship (modeled after GraTeach), refinanced by companies: approx. €1,000 per month per participant. The state gets the money back if graduates remain with the company for 24 months.
• Self-sustaining teachers: After an initial phase, teachers finance themselves through project output—as would have been possible with GraTeach if the public sector had paid market-based prices for contracts.