The study concludes that ethical concerns regarding the use of autonomous weapons could be addressed if Trusted WEB 4.0 were implemented.
1. Likely Scenario Without Trusted WEB 4.0 – Forecast
Drones in Military Conflicts by 2030: Technological Dominance and Autocratic Power
By 2030, the global market for military drones is estimated to reach approx. €22.8 billion (converted from USD 22.81 billion), with an annual growth rate of 7.6%. Technological advancements such as autonomous navigation, swarm intelligence, stealth capabilities, and precision armament enable autocratic states like China, Russia, and Iran to strategically deploy drones to strengthen military control and political oppression.
Technological and Strategic Developments
Autonomous Systems: Modern military drones are equipped with AI, machine learning, and autonomous navigation systems that perform tasks such as surveillance, reconnaissance, and target monitoring with minimal human intervention. By 2030, drones will be even harder to detect due to advanced materials and design features (e.g., radar, thermal, and acoustic stealth).
Swarm Drones: The ability to deploy drones in swarms increases tactical flexibility and striking power. Autocratic actors use drones for surveillance, targeted attacks, and logistical support, particularly in asymmetric wars, civil wars, and counterterrorism.
Ethical and Humanitarian Risks
Autonomous Weapons: Increasing autonomy raises ethical questions, particularly regarding drones that make lethal decisions without human control. This could lead to a new era of warfare where algorithms decide over life and death.
Humanitarian Consequences: Without democratic countermeasures (e.g., international regulations, defense systems, sanctions), the unchecked use of drones could lead to global security destabilization. Risks include:
- Increase in civilian casualties due to drone strikes in populated areas.
- Psychological strain from constant surveillance (e.g., in China, Russia, Iran).
- Power Shifts: Autocratic states could expand their military superiority and dominate global conflict zones.
Autocratic Strategies and Case Studies
China: A leader in developing swarm-capable drones, autonomous targeting systems, and long-range maritime aircraft. Drones are used for military operations, surveillance of its own population, and support for allied regimes.
Russia and Iran: Use drones for monitoring political opposition (e.g., biometric facial recognition, AI-based motion analysis) and controlling the population. Iran deploys drones in geopolitical conflicts beyond its borders.
Case Studies:
- Operation Spiderweb (Ukraine): Successful use of drones to destroy Russian long-range bombers.
- Operation Rising Lion (Israel): Combination of electronic warfare and precise drone strikes against Iranian command centers.
Geopolitical and Ethical Consequences
Shift in Power Dynamics: The unchecked proliferation of drone technology could shift the global power balance in favor of autocratic states with advanced drones. This could lead to a new world order where autocratic regimes expand their influence and undermine democratic principles.
Role of Gatekeepers: AI-driven systems in social media and news platforms manipulate public opinion and undermine democratic discourse. Control of information flow is increasingly taken over by algorithms that promote certain agendas or suppress information.
Autocracies and Gatekeepers in the Digital Age
By 2030, the share of autocratically governed states has increased to over 56% of the global number of states, with 38% classified as highly repressive dictatorships or failing states (Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2026). This development was accelerated by geopolitical tensions (e.g., the Ukraine War) and the strategic use of digital technologies. Autocracies now control over 26% of global economic output (IW, 2022), providing them with additional resources to expand their power.
AI as a Central Tool of Control
Surveillance and Censorship: Autocratic regimes use AI on a large scale to monitor social media, spread disinformation, and automate censorship. „Sovereign AI“ is embedded directly into the digital infrastructure in countries like China and Russia, enabling seamless control of public discourse (Journal of Democracy, Democratization, 2026).
Algorithmic Gatekeepers: Social media and news platforms are dominated by AI-driven algorithms that curate content based on engagement metrics. This leads to polarization, misinformation, and an undermining of journalistic autonomy (bpb, 2025, DGAP, 2025).
Economic Power: Autocracies like China, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey use their economic strength to invest in AI surveillance technologies (e.g., facial recognition, predictive policing) and build regional AI ecosystems (FSI Stanford, 2024).
Technological Developments by 2030
Generative AI is implemented by 71% of organizations, revolutionizing content creation, software, and product design (Forbes, 2024).
Autonomous AI Agents independently handle complex tasks, increasing productivity by 15–30%.
Artificial Intelligence of Things (AIoT) enables preventive, adaptive systems with a global market volume of approx. €155 billion (converted from USD 168.69 billion).
Invisible AI makes decisions without direct user interaction (market volume: approx. €91 billion by 2029, converted from USD 99.52 billion).
2. Development with Broad European Support for Trusted WEB 4.0
I see that Trusted WEB 4.0 could have prevented the annexation of Crimea as early as 2014 by networking exiled Russians as patrons and Russians in resistance.
Finland demonstrates how collective defense works: Every citizen is involved, and this awareness protects the country. This is exactly what a citizen-centered EU-D-S with digital participation could have achieved.
The Ukraine War has shown that modern wars are no longer fought solely through military strength but also through attacks on critical infrastructures and political symbols. Cyberattacks and drones are inexpensive and effective, while intelligence operations are risky and limited.
The WAN-anonymous exiled patrons and resistance citizens concept of Trusted WEB 4.0 would have the advantage of having many „eyes and ears“ in autocracies. Communication takes place encrypted via patrons, with the key not transmitted over the internet.
Since all purely internet-based encryptions can be cracked with advanced AI, this system would be resistant to infiltration.
Since 2002, citizens could have networked in 2,500 languages via getmySense. Such a resilient community would have made every autocracy fear it. Over the past 28 years, many autocratic attacks would have been repelled, and the decentralized digital defense infrastructure would have deterred autocracies from launching attacks—for fear that repelled attacks would be perceived as the superiority of the democratic system.
3. 2026: Difficult, but Still Feasible
One feels like shouting at politicians: „You know this, so why aren’t you doing anything?“
I observe that German politics still hesitated in 2025 to get involved in the Ukraine War. Meanwhile, the stationing of its own missile defense systems in Ukraine has become a matter of course.
I cannot predict how quickly the EU-D-S will gain significant market shares beyond a European momentum. But one thing is certain: Autocratic systems will not accept democratic digital development because their sphere of influence is directly threatened.
We have been in a war-like digital confrontation for years.
In the pre-digital society, democracies gave their citizens a high sense of security. But autocracies already see us as adversaries. Any central infrastructure and planning carries the risk of being detected and attacked by the enemy.
The only solution: Decentralized infrastructures in which every citizen can participate. Digital autocracies require a defense that calculates with probabilities. Not more surveillance, but trust in citizens is the key. The probability that individual citizens will cause harm must be lower than the risk that central systems will be hacked.
In expansion of my 2022 proposal, I propose with the resolution proposal against the Ukraine War a division of responsibilities to defend against drone attacks and simultaneously democratize defense:
- Military: Hierarchical chain of command, responsibility for maintenance and placement of drones, release of a pool for time-limited and regionally limited attacks.
- Digital Conscripts: Short basic training, leeway to fire drones at known targets—without knowing where the drones are physically located before launch. This excludes manipulation. In the war in Ukraine, there is currently a shortage of soldiers qualified to operate drones. However, if conscripts can take over remote control, there will be enough part-time specialists (including women) to fill the gap alongside their regular jobs.
- Patrons: Evaluation of information from resistance fighters and forwarding to conscripts.
- Resistance Fighters: Any number can be established. Anyone who identifies even a single structurally relevant target makes a low-risk but effective contribution.
- AI: Assists in plausibility checks and attack optimization—but the final decision always remains with humans.
4. Trusted WEB 4.0 Bonus 2030: Citizens Trust in a Defense They Participate In
Carryover from Previous Years:
I assume that the EU-D-S will be founded in 2027.
The GAP amount from 2026 of €45.7428 trillion will be reduced annually from 2027 by the Trusted WEB 4.0 Bonus.
Trusted WEB 4.0 Bonus:
The Trusted WEB 4.0 Bonus for 2030 is estimated at 12% of the estimated EU GDP for 2029 (approx. €20.88 trillion).
The bonus thus amounts to approx. €2.51 trillion and would reduce the GAP amount by this value.
- Trusted WEB 4.0 Bonus 2027: €900 billion (5% of EU GDP 2027: €18.00 trillion)
- Trusted WEB 4.0 Bonus 2028: €1.85 trillion (10% of EU GDP 2028: €18.50 trillion)
- Trusted WEB 4.0 Bonus 2029: €2.28 trillion (12% of EU GDP 2029: €19.00 trillion)
- Trusted WEB 4.0 Bonus 2030: €2.51 trillion (12% of EU GDP 2029: €20.80 trillion)
Total Trusted WEB 4.0 Bonus: €7.54 trillion
Development of Gatekeepers (Google, Amazon, etc.):
2025: Google (approx. €300 billion), Amazon (approx. €600 billion)
2026: Google (approx. €320 billion), Amazon (approx. €650 billion)
2027: Google (approx. €340 billion), Amazon (approx. €700 billion)
2028: Google (approx. €360 billion), Amazon (approx. €750 billion)
2029: Google (approx. €380 billion), Amazon (approx. €800 billion)
2030: Google (approx. €400 billion), Amazon (approx. €850 billion)
Events in Europe That Would Have Changed with EU-D-S:
- 2014: Prevention of the annexation of Crimea through early digital networking of resistance forces.
- 2016: Defense against disinformation campaigns during the US elections and Brexit referendum.
- 2020–2022: Faster and more effective response to the COVID-19 pandemic through decentralized data processing.
- 2022–2024: Greater resilience against cyberattacks on energy and health infrastructures in Ukraine.
- 2025–2030: Prevention of election manipulation in European countries through secure digital voting systems.
Trusted WEB 4.0 technologies such as
Finder (1999),
getmySense (2002),
GISAD (2003),
EU-D-S (2004),
and
WAN Anonymity (2007)
could have served as the foundation for a European digital alternative without obstruction.
European Sources
- Eurostat – Statistical Office of the European Union (Economic Data, GDP Development)
- EU Digital Strategy – European Commission (Digital Sovereignty, Trusted WEB 4.0)
- European Parliament – Studies on Digital Defense (Cybersecurity, Autocracy Defense)
- European Defence Agency (EDA) (Military and Digital Defense Strategies)
- European University Institute (EUI) – Research on Digital Democracy
- Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) – Funding Programs for Digital Innovations
- GlobalData – AI in Military Drones: Transforming Modern Warfare (2025–2030)
- MarketsandMarkets – Next Defense Boom: Autonomous Drones Emerging as a Multi-Billion-Dollar Military Technology Opportunity
- Grand View Research – How the Military Drone Industry Will Evolve by 2030
- Britannica – Drone Warfare in the 21st Century: Developments, Examples, Countermeasures, & Ukraine
- CEPA – How Are Drones Changing War? The Future of the Battlefield
- Middle East Institute – Drones Are Re-Engineering the Geopolitics of the Middle East
- Toda Peace Institute – Drone Technology and the Future of Nuclear Weapons
- Defense One – Military Drone Sector Eyes Massive Growth as Nations Modernize Defense Operations
- Modern War Institute – The Drone Revolution That Isn’t
- Internationale Politik – China’s Security Interconnections
- Taylor & Francis – Iranian Drones at the Service of Authoritarian Geopolitics
- TechZeitgeist – Digital Dictatorships: How AI Surveillance States Threaten Human Rights
- Heise – The War of the Future Has Begun – Drones, Algorithms, and Digital Dominance
- Investopedia – The Ultimate Guide to Gatekeeping
- Reconceptualizing Gatekeeping in the Age of Artificial Intelligence: A Theoretical Exploration of AI-Driven News Curation and Automated Journalism
- Intermedia – The Algorithm’s Grip: How Digital Gatekeepers Are Reshaping Media Pluralism
- Bertelsmann Stiftung – Global Results (2026)
- Journal of Democracy – How Autocrats Weaponize AI — And How to Fight Back
- The Rise of Authoritarian Informationalism: Escalating Surveillance, Manipulation, and Control (Democratization, 2026)
- FSI – Getting Ahead of Digital Repression: Authoritarian Innovation and Democratic Response
- TechPolicy.Press – Autocrats’ Digital Advances Underscore the Need for Civil Society
- BigData-Insider – What Developments Should We Expect in AI by 2030?
- IW – Isolation Is Not an Option: Autocracies Are Gaining Political and Economic Importance
- bpb – Systematic Manipulation of Social Media in the Age of AI
- DGAP – Systematic Manipulation of Social Media in the Age of AI
- Forbes – 5 AI Predictions for the Year 2030
- AI in Autocracies: 10 Chapters on Strategies to Mitigate the Impact of AI (Democratization, 2026)
- DGAP – From Predicting Dissent to Programming Power: Analyzing AI-Driven Authoritarian Governance in the Middle East through the TRIAD Framework


